The production of Italian durum wheat in 2022 may be about 16% lower than a year earlier, mainly due to the water deficit recorded in the seed phase and high temperatures in recent months. This is the result of the first Ismea poll in the first days of July, when the collection operations were almost complete. The decline in production predicted by the Institute is the result of a decrease in the area intended for durum wheat (-1.4% according to sowing intentions reported by Istat) and a decrease in yields per hectare, which would be the national average of 2.8 t / ha, the lowest in 5 years.
The information gathered shows that the reduction in yields should apply to almost all major areas: from Apulia (-25%), Sicily (-15%) and Basilicata (-10%) to Marche (-20%) and Emilia-Romagna ( -15%), raising domestic production to 3.4 million tonnes in the 2022/23 campaign. From a qualitative point of view, the grain should have good quality standards throughout the territory with an average protein content of between 11 and 13% by dry matter.
Deteriorating production expectations also in France, again due to the persistent hot and dry climate, prompted the EU to revise its production forecasts downward again to 7 million tonnes, or 9.2% less on an annualized basis. By contrast, harvest forecasts for North America, after last year’s slump, point to a recovery. The most recent IGC (International Grains Council) estimate actually points to global durum wheat production in 2022 at 32.9 million tonnes (+ 7.4% compared to the poor previous campaign) due to the increase in supply in Canada (estimated at over 6 million tons, after 2.7 million last year) and the USA (2.1 million tons, more than twice last year).
Meanwhile, the first signs of a easing on the lists are coming from the markets after a tightening recorded since late 2021, which hit a record in the last week of June. The quotation of the non-EU foreign product in the third week of July was 558.75 EUR / t, down by 1% on a weekly basis and by 7.6% compared to the last week of June, while EU durum wheat remained stable at 540 EUR / t. t in the first three weeks of the month (in the last week of June it was EUR 575 / t). The same weekly trend also applies to the domestic product, with durum wheat to which in the third week of this month is 507.50 € / t in both Bologna and Foggia, while in the last week of June the price was 562.50 € / t respectively t and € 577.50.
However, Ismea stresses that it is too early to define a well-defined price orientation, given some critical elements that remain in the market fundamentals. In fact, world demand is expected to increase to 33.6 million tonnes in 2022/23, i.e. at levels above supply, as a prelude to a further decline in closing stocks (-10.7% and 5.5 million tonnes in 2022). / 23). At the same time, there is still some uncertainty about production outcomes in North America, given the climatic anomalies that are emerging with increasing frequency today.